*Stabilization vs Hardship: What The Numbers Say About Nigeria’s Economy* _By: Sarki Halima Musa_


 

*Stabilization vs Hardship: What The Numbers Say About Nigeria’s Economy*  
_By: Sarki Halima Musa_

This analysis is based on publicly available data from the CBN, IMF, World Bank, DMO and the Federal Government between 2023 and 2026. The Federal Government says progress has been made. According to CBN data for May 2026, Nigeria’s external reserves stood at $49.26bn, up from $35.09bn in 2023. FAAC data also shows allocations to states rose from ₦629bn in March 2023 to over ₦2tn in March 2026 [Source: CBN, FAAC]. In his Independence Day address, President Tinubu said “we have turned the corner.” On the other hand, global reports point to hardship. In its 2025 report, the World Bank estimated that 139 million Nigerians live in poverty. After petrol subsidy removal in May 2023, fuel prices rose from under ₦200 to over ₦800 per litre in many areas, contributing to higher transport and food costs [Source: World Bank Nigeria Development Update 2025].

On debt, DMO data shows total public debt reached ₦159.28tn by end of 2025, up from ₦87.38tn in June 2023. External debt was $51.9bn in 2025. In its 2026 Article IV report, the IMF projected external debt could rise to $72.6bn by 2027, with debt service for 2026 estimated at about $11.6bn [Source: DMO, IMF Article IV 2026]. Government says reforms like subsidy removal and FX unification were done to free up funds for infrastructure. The World Bank estimated about $5.1bn was saved in 2023 from these reforms. Tax revenue also rose to 13.5% of GDP after tax reforms [Source: World Bank, FIRS]. In July 2025, the National Assembly approved a new external borrowing plan of $21bn, €4bn and ¥15bn for government projects [Source: NASS, Ministry of Finance].

However, many Nigerians are feeling the impact of rising prices. The World Bank noted that 4 million more people may have fallen into poverty in the first 5 months after subsidy removal due to reduced purchasing power [Source: World Bank]. Economists and business owners say it is important to see how these funds translate into jobs, stable power, and lower food prices so citizens can feel the impact. There is also the long-standing concern around transparency and ensuring borrowed funds are tracked properly to avoid leakages.

In summary, on paper there are signs of stabilization: higher reserves and higher revenue. In the market, there are still challenges: cost of living, unemployment, and inflation. The key question remains: how do we ensure every naira and dollar raised or borrowed goes directly toward improving the lives of ordinary Nigerians? 

*What do you think?* Share your views in the comments.

#NigeriaEconomy #CBN #IMF #WorldBank #TinubuAdministration #CostOfLiving #NexviewAnalysis #NigeriaNews

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